瑞士信贷：2013年中国地产行业投资策略

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Our base case for 1H13E housing prices is +5% in the large cities, with upside risks. We discussed in our July 2012 report (click here) that shortterm housing prices correlate with liquidity. The liquidity that drove housing prices higher in 2H12 should continue to do so in 1H13E, with tier 1 cities’ housing prices potentially rising much higher. With CPI rising, however, China’s 2013E monetary policy may not be as loose as in 2012, and potential policy risks create uncertainties for the housing price trend in 2H13E.

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